ROME — Arab governments must adopt wide-reaching measures to assuage frustration among the region’s youth so as to block Isis’s main sources of recruitment as the terror group increases attacks on civilian targets worldwide, a leading commentator on the Middle East says. “With the imminent capture of Raqqa by the Syrian army following agreement by the United States and Russia to leave Damascus a free hand, we will see a new phase with Daesh trying to mount attacks everywhere,” Dr Amer Sabaileh, secretary-general of the Gulf Mediterranean Forum, told the Italian Insider.

 “No group before Daesh dared to declare a caliphate. Daesh started where other groups like the Moslem Brotherhood wanted to end. The caliphate looks like armageddon, the final battle. That is why I think we will see more brutal terrorism. We might also get more brutal new groups. The more brutal they are the better they become known.”

 “The idea of the ‘final battle’ gives this a global dimension against civilian targets. We saw from what happened in Brussels that three gunmen hidden in an apartment required the mobilization of an army on the streets. This new style of terrorism can easily drain the resources of states,” Dr Sabaileh told the Insider.

 “How can you make an airport secure, unless you close the airport? With such attacks you are damaging tourism and the transport system and in the end it costs almost nothing — one man with a Kalashnikov through a simple act has a very high effect.” “That is why I am not sure that we are ready to face the coming radicalism in a very efficient way. There has to be a better understanding of radical groups in the Middle East. Security forces are already tired, they are not working in building capacity. There is an increase in crime too because there is a marriage between terrorism and crime.” In the face of such challenges “we don’t have a strategy,” Dr Sabaileh cautions.

 “Many societies today can be considered an incubator for extremism and terrorism. In this regard there is big difference between Europe and the Middle East.” “In Europe we are talking about at most hundreds of recruits for Daesh. But if you are talking about mass joining it is coming from the Arab countries, from Tunisia, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.”

 “In the Arab world governments for many years participated in shaping the legend of armageddon, the belief underlined by Daesh in calling its magazine Dabaq, the place where armageddon will happen.” “After the Second World War Arab governments allied with the Moslem Brotherhood which became a partner in government in Jordan and after Sadat in Egypt. In Jordan the monarchy believed that the Brotherhood was the best tool against Nasserism.” “Upgrades” in radicalism came with the war in Afghanistan and the Saudi reaction to the Iranian revolution.

 “The Saudis accepted extreme Wahhabism and funded the first holy war in Afghanistan. “ After the war in Iraq of 2003 there was another upgrade to fighting the United States and the West. “Wherever there is a crisis it is easy to upgrade it.” Today terrorism can never be eliminated completely, Dr Sabaileh continues. “We are just relying on security solutions. Many (Arab) countries liked it that way because it meant acceptance by the West and above all easy money. But it is not a game changer.”

 Governments in the region too often are not willing to change the situation. “They are investing in religion. You find one small town that has 13 mosques but no schools. It reminds one of medieval times with autocracy and religion, a marriage that makes everything easy.” There are some glimmers of hope in some countries “but what is needed is a global alliance for a cultural revolution that can not be achieved without a long term strategy.” “People see the situation too much in terms of the Bush ‘’war on terror.’

 The reasons behind the group should be attacked courageously — autocracy, corruption, lack of job opportunities. You have today people who see the future in the past because they can’t integrate with the future. They take refuge in the idea of utopia because they think they will go to heaven. But if they could experience in this life what they expect in heaven would they really still kill themselves to go to heaven?” “if they felt appreciated don’t you think they would see their life as precious? If they have more elements of life in their lives would they leave life to go to an unknown destiny?” Dr Sabaileh insists that against this background Saudi Arabia in particular must make compromises.

 “After the attacks in France and Belgium people said again that the Saudis are part of the problem. But others said ‘no, the Saudis are the problem, not part of it.’” “The Saudis have realized that. Reforms aimed to work by 2030 should focus on supporting groups that play a major role in de-radicalising but not just on the security level but also on the social and political levels.” “The problems in our countries today should be solved from within. What they need is international support for new actions but, as President Obama said, not to create a 3rd World War. What is needed is a commitment to change and international support. If you keep it at a security level it will be a vicious circle.”

 A new conference on the Middle East is one possible route and the whole question is something the new UN secretary general should consider. “Aid donations should be made conditional relating to projects that give life to people, Dr Sabaileh says, “don’t neglect the cultural side. Art, literature, cinema, sport are all things that could give hope to change the life of millions of young people and save them from joining Deash as many of their predecessors have”.

 “It is time to face things in a different way. The old model in the Arab world of undemocratic countries producing terrorists and then selling information about them to the West won’t work any longer,” Dr Sabaileh said.