Elections, the estimates after Calenda's rift: "To the centre-right more than 60% of the seats" says latest report.
INSIDER NEWSDESK
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17 August 2022
Estimated overall distribution of seats for the Chamber of Deputies based on the territorial distribution of the vote recorded in the European elections 2019 and the polls of voting intentions for the July-August 2022 parties.
ROME - Azione’s estrangement from the Democratic Party (Pd) is likely to impact the distribution of seats in parliment in favour of the centre-right, according to the latest report of the Carlo Cattaneo institute. The radical asymmetry ensuing from the break is denominated by the Sole 24 as the “Calenda Effect”.
The centre-right coalition, comprised by Brothers of Italy (FdI), the League (Lega) and Forza Italia (FI) could feasibly conquer some 245 seats in the upcoming election this September.
“The centre-right would win 19 more uninominal constituencies in parliament and 9 more in the Senate, reaching 61 per cent of the total seats in the first case and 64 per cent in the second” - the report reads.
Calenda’s Azione distancing itself from Letta’s Pd denotes the broadining of the chasm separating the historic left from its novel second self, unable to coexist collaboratively even in the face of what Calenda himself regards as a “dangerous rightward drift”, as stated during a conference at the foreign press office. The split also foreshadows a probable convergence with Renzi’s Italia Viva, the report explains.
In this new scenario, Italia viva and Azione "ally with one another, creating an independent list that has a chance of overcoming the 3 per cent threshold granting access to the distribution of seats in the proportional quota".
It further continues: "considering the averages of all the polls published between the second week of July and the first week of August, the three centre-right parties (FdI, Lega, FI) are attributed an estimated 46 per cent of the vote intentions nationally, the M5s just under 11 per cent.
In order to establish the plausible repartition of votes attributable today to the centre-left and the hypothetical list IV-Action, we resort to the estimated voting intentions of polls published in the first four months of 2022, when Action and +Europa were measured separately. The result is not far from what various pollsters illustrate based on individual surveys from last week. The centre-left would arrive at around 30 per cent, the IV-Action list at 6 per cent”.
An ulterior methodological note explains that the "estimate of the overall distribution of seats" is made "on the basis of the territorial distribution of the vote recorded in the European elections 2019 and of the polls on voting intentions for the parties in July-August 2022".
The report cautions that the centre-right could capitalise on single-member constituencies in both chambers of parliment. The so-called 'armoured' polling stations for the centre-left could be reduced radically to a scattered array of marginal sections in Tuscany and the central districts of large metropolitan areas.
The estimated number of foreseeable seats would therefore amount to, in the Chamber, 245 seats for the centre-right, equal to 61 per cent, 107 for the centre-left, 27 for the M5s, 16 for Azione-Iv, 5 for the others. In the Senate, centre-right 127 (63.5 per cent), centre-left 51, M5s 12, Action-Iv 7, others 3.
In light of the centre-right drawing closer to 66 per cent, reasonably one wonders whether it could potentially obtain a qualified two-thirds majority; i.e. a constitutional mechanism enabling the autonomous modification of the constitution by way of a fixed parliamentary majority, without undergoing a popular referendum.
Nevertheless analysts consider the event “very unlikely [...] on the basis of currently available data”, granted no further growth is expected in the proportional quota.
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Stima della distribuzione complessiva dei seggi per il Senato della Repubblica in base alla distribuzione territoriale del voto registrata alle Europee 2019 e dei sondaggi sulle intenzioni di voto per i partiti di luglio-agosto 2022.
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