ROME -- The most recent survey for party popularity shows that the new Civil Union Bill has seriously dented the support of the Democratic Party, which has been overtaken by centre-right parties, losing almost one point, underlining the influence that the Roman Catholic Church still holds in Italy.

 According to the survey by LA7 television the agreement between Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and president of the New Centre-Right party Angelino Alfano over the Cirinnà law, gave a new lease of life to those parties that fought against the bill.  M5S (Movimento 5 Stelle) won a point in a week and Sel won half a point, meaning that a Lega Nord (Liberal party), Fratelli d’Italia (Nationalist Party) and Forza Italia (Liberal Conservatives) union could be said to be the over-riding force in the polls.

 That is not to say these three right-wing parties have improved their performances to become the leading parties, but combined they would give the Democrats a run for their money, which is a situation that hasn’t been seen since media mogul Silvio Berlusconi’s last government.  The survey shows that the central-right parties would take 32 percent of the vote, an increase of 0.6 percent from last week, whilst the Democratic Party has lost 0.8 percent to leave them at 31.2 percent.

 Fabrizio Masia, and the director of LA7 television, who completed the survey, Enrico Mentana, who spoke live on the TG news channel, said it is is probable that the law on civil unions influenced the opinions of the so-called moderate electorate.

 However, one should be careful to also look at these parties separately in the “intention to vote” survey, rather than lumped together for popularity.  The element that jumps out first is the fact that all parties who opposed that Renzi-Alfano pact on civil union have gained voters, whilst the Democrats and Area Popolare have visibly fallen in the polls.

 The Democratic Party are still the leading party, on 31.3 percent, but with a decline of 0.9, whilst M5S have moved an even higher amount in the opposite direction to put them as the next party on 26.4 percent, putting not even five percent between the two parties.  Sinistra Italiana have also now passed the threshold they would need for representation in parliament, by moving up to 4.1 percent, whilst Area Popolare have fallen by half a point to 3.2.

 The number of those who said they would abstain stills remains high, though it has fallen by 1.2 points to becomes 38.4, whilst those who remain undecided is at 14.2 percent.

 It remains to be seen what would happen if the parties continued to move in the direction they are, which would put M5S out on top, a highly possible scenario if Renzi and the Democratic party continue to push for the stepchild adoption clause to be added to the civil union bill, a highly contested move in this predominantly Catholic country.

 Whilst the predictions say that this margin would be a small one, they have calculated that M5S would also beat the centre-right by a significant margin.

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