WFP warns global hunger could surge to near-record levels amid Middle East escalation

Rome — The World Food Programme (WFP) has issued a stark warning that global food insecurity could climb to levels not seen since the onset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as continued instability in the Middle East threatens to send shockwaves through energy and food markets worldwide.

In a press briefing released on 17 March, the Rome-based UN agency said that as many as 45 million additional people could be pushed into acute hunger in 2026 if the conflict persists and oil prices remain elevated. This would add to the estimated 318 million people already facing severe food insecurity.

WFP analysis suggests that global hunger could approach the 349 million people affected during the economic turmoil that followed the outbreak of war in Ukraine in 2022. While the current crisis is centred on a key global energy hub rather than a major agricultural region, officials stressed that the consequences may be similarly severe due to the close link between fuel costs and food prices.

“If this conflict continues, it will send shockwaves across the globe, and families who already cannot afford their next meal will be hit the hardest,” said Carl Skau, Deputy Executive Director and Chief Operating Officer of the agency. He warned that without sufficient humanitarian funding, the situation could “spell catastrophe” for millions already on the brink.

The disruption of vital maritime routes, including the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, is already driving up the cost of energy, fertiliser and transportation. These increases are being felt far beyond the immediate conflict zone, with import-dependent economies in Africa and Asia expected to bear the brunt.

According to WFP projections, food insecurity could rise by 21 per cent in West and Central Africa and by 17 per cent in East and Southern Africa, while parts of Asia could see a 24 per cent increase. Countries heavily reliant on imports are particularly exposed. In Sudan, which imports around 80 per cent of its wheat, higher prices for staple goods risk pushing more households into hunger. Meanwhile, in Somalia, already grappling with severe drought, the cost of essential commodities has reportedly risen by at least 20 per cent since the escalation began.

The agency also highlighted the compounding effect of funding shortfalls, which have forced it to scale back operations globally. Without an increase in resources to match rising needs, WFP cautioned that some of the world’s most vulnerable populations could face famine-like conditions.

The warning underscores the fragility of global food systems in the face of geopolitical instability, and the extent to which conflicts far from Europe’s borders continue to have profound humanitarian consequences worldwide

PS