Interview with Finnish President: 'For Putin, Trump’s ‘stick’ phase has begun'

 HELSINKI -- In the elegant setting of the temporary official residence in Munkkiniemi, where he received us, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, 57, offered a sweeping geopolitical overview, fresh from his engagements at the United Nations. With a pragmatic and action-oriented tone, Stubb dismissed pessimism surrounding global foreign policy, focusing instead on the intensification of support for Ukraine and the resilience of the Western front.

Trump’s new doctrine: from “carrot” to “stick”

 At the heart of Stubb’s analysis lies the war in Ukraine, where he observed unprecedented confidence during a recent visit to Kyiv. The Finnish president expressed his belief that the U.S. administration is accelerating efforts to bring the conflict to an end—but with a renewed approach toward Vladimir Putin:  

 “He started with the carrot, giving Putin the chance to do the right thing. But having seen that carrots rarely work with the Russians, he’s moved on to the stick.”  

 According to Stubb, this strategy is not mere rhetoric but translates into tangible tools. Trump’s “stick” includes aggressive use of both primary and secondary sanctions, along with the provision of advanced military equipment capable of “penetrating deep into Russia’s war machine,” targeting production capabilities such as drone factories. Stubb’s optimism stems from the sense that the American president is “losing patience” with Moscow’s actions.

Ukraine’s leadership: drone warfare expertise

 In the context of Russia’s hybrid warfare—ranging from attacks on Baltic Sea submarine cables to the weaponization of migrants at land borders and aerial drone incursions—Stubb issued a clear warning to allies:  

 “Stay calm, analyze, and deter to the best of our ability.”  

 He emphasized that Ukraine is not merely a recipient of support but a vital source of knowledge for NATO:  “the most experienced and modern army in Europe right now is Ukraine’s. They have a lot—and I mean a lot—to teach us about how to deal with drones. We simply don’t have the same capabilities.”  

 This awareness reinforces Stubb’s argument for Ukraine’s strategic accession to the European Union and, eventually, NATO—overcoming institutional hurdles such as Hungary’s veto through creative solutions that enhance decision-making flexibility within the bloc.

Budget, frozen assets, and Finland’s stance

 Stubb addressed the link between rising military expenditures and budget deficits with pragmatic clarity. While acknowledging that defense is a “zero-sum game” that may require cuts to social security, he asserted that for Finland, increased spending “is not a problem.” The reason is blunt:  

 “Our only military threat is Russia.”  Finland, he reiterated, fully supports NATO’s proposed target of 5% of GDP for defense, viewing it as a return to pre-Cold War spending levels. On the financial front, Stubb endorsed the European plan to utilize frozen Russian assets. The idea is to structure the operation—estimated at around €170 billion—as a zero-interest loan to Ukraine. Should Russia fail to pay war reparations, the loan would be converted into compensation, upholding international legality:  

 “I think the idea is ingenious, and I’m confident it will work,” he commented.

Global ethics: Gaza and the Global South

 Reflecting on Finland’s role in the world and criticism from the Global South, Stubb acknowledged that accusations of double standards are inevitable, as no nation perfectly balances interests, values, and power. However, he drew a clear distinction with Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, while admitting that   “Israel too has violated international law” and “has gone too far.”  

 Stubb expressed “cautious optimism” about the situation in Gaza, crediting joint diplomatic efforts by the United States and Arab states. He also praised Global South nations as potential peace mediators in both Ukraine and the Middle East.

The end of a model: “Finlandisation”

 The president reiterated his categorical rejection of the concept of “Finlandization,” popular until the 1980s, calling it a “dirty word” in Finnish political vocabulary—a formula requiring “too many compromises” on sovereignty, even if it preserved national independence. He stressed that the lessons of the Winter War (1939–1940) remain central to Finnish identity, explaining the emotional bond with Ukraine’s struggle. The parallels are striking: as then, Russia has failed to achieve its strategic objectives, while defenders have shown that “no situation is impossible.”  

 On the historical phase of the Winter War, Stubb recommended a recent French publication, Les Guerriers de l’Hiver (The Winter Warriors), a historical novel by Olivier Norek released in 2024. The book, marking Norek’s transition from noir to historical fiction, is based on extensive field research akin to journalistic investigation, aiming to shed light on the conflict and the sacrifice of Finnish soldiers.

A personal note: Florence and transatlantic ties

 Finally, the president reaffirmed one of his key goals: ensuring that Europe does not drift away from American security guarantees, stating that  

 “To detach from the United States militarily or otherwise would be simply insane.”  

 Concluding the meeting on a personal note, when asked whether he missed Florence—where he served as professor and director at the School of Transnational Governance within the European University Institute (EUI) from 2020 to 2024—Stubb admitted to a touch of nostalgia for the city where, he recalled, he had the opportunity to write one of his books.

 khg