Trump-Putin meeting is a 'trophy to show off at home', top Italian diplomat says

 ROME - In an interview with Il Messaggero, Ettore Sequi, former secretary general of the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) and former ambassador to China, is convinced that “the sanctions announced by Trump do not worry Putin much. We are talking about sanctions that consist of increasing tariffs on countries that buy energy from Russia. Trump will be able to apply them to India, but less easily to China, with whom the terms of the preliminary agreement reached in Geneva are being decided. And here the issue is tricky for Trump, because at stake with Beijing is the question of rare earths, which are necessary, among other things, to produce the F-35 and certain submarines.”

 Q: So why has Trump increased the pressure?

 A: “The sanctions and the announcement of the deployment of two American nuclear submarines reveal his irritation. First of all, because there is a bipartisan agreement between Democrats and Republicans on a motion calling for 500 per cent tariffs. By raising the tension, Trump is pushing away this possibility, which would also be politically annoying for him. The mobilisation of submarines serves to say: I will not give in.”

 What is his goal?

 “Trump needs a trophy to show off at home. Putin, in turn, is aware of Trump's need and knows he has to give something. The idea of a bilateral meeting has been accepted, and we will see if Zelensky will also be there in the end. In Putin's mind, the intention is to convince Trump to persuade Zelensky to swallow a few bitter pills. Putin will want to deal with Zelensky in the end, but first he wants to deal with Trump on Zelensky.”

 In what sense? There has been talk of a possible air truce...

 “Trump is interested in the truce. The air truce could reduce deaths and at the same time limit Ukrainian drones over Russia. If the meeting is between Trump and Putin, given that the Russians cannot legitimise Zelensky, it is conceivable that there will be some more results. Trump could grant Putin Ukraine's exclusion from NATO and a severe limitation of Kiev's military capabilities. Now another issue is emerging from some statements: the possibility of using the conquered territories included in the Russian Constitution as bargaining chips. We will see how. I imagine a division of labour. Putin gives something up and asks Trump to put pressure on Zelensky.”

 How much will Zelensky be able to concede?

 “Much depends on how Putin will be able to entice Trump. And Trump must persuade Zelensky that he has to make serious concessions. To put it more assertively, from Putin's point of view, only Trump can normalise Russia's objectives, territorial and otherwise, by disguising them as compromises. I believe that the Russians essentially want to enrol Trump.”

 Does Europe still matter?

 “Putin does not expect Zelensky or others to sit at the negotiating table. But after his last meeting with Putin, Trump informed his European partners, and it was not the first time. The greater responsibility of European NATO members in defending Europe weighs heavily, so Trump's perception of a certain European added value is growing. The question we must ask ourselves is: what is Europe's power to contain Trump's strength? Some people in America are also beginning to question the American position towards Moscow. That is why Trump urgently needs to show some concrete results.”

 Will the war be a long one, or is there a chance for peace?

 “It depends on two factors. The first is Putin's ability to get Trump to accept the red lines for the Russians, and the other is Trump's consequent ability to exert moral suasion on Ukraine. The demonstrations against the anti-corruption law and the fact that Zelensky had to back down is interesting because it suggests that an election campaign is beginning in Ukraine, even though there is no election date set. You need to keep your ear to the ground to pick up on these dynamics. The other variable is therefore how much the internal situation in Ukraine could influence Zelensky's decisions.”

rs