ROME – Celebrating its tenth anniversary with a lively round-table discussion at the Euro-Gulf Information Centre (EGIC) Via Gregoriana HQ, the think tank shared a number of rosy predictions for the year ahead. EGIC's global outlook is, "for the first time in a long time, optimistic," leadership said. 

 Conversation began with America. EGIC predicted a jumpstart transition between the sleepy Biden administration, "unengaged" for the last 18 months, and what promises to be a "hands-on" second Trump term. Concerned with cementing a legacy, the returning American president will tackle a "huge agenda," with a "not democratic-value driven administration," said EGIC.

 And the group expects that during Trump's first phase in office the United States will refocus on the Monroe doctrine, diverting its attention around the world to its immediate neighbours. 

 That may be a welcome development for Europe, said EGIC. That there was no European voice at the table during the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement negotiated primarily by Qatar and Egypt should serve as an "eye-opener" for the EU, EGIC said. In the opinion of EGIC leadership the EU should beef up its role reducing tensions in the eastern Mediterranean. 

 EGIC identified two of 2024's most surprising developments just above the ceasefire, in Syria and Lebanon.

 At the beginning of 2024, the group would have met prediction of the Assad regime's fall with disbelief, leadership said. But heading into 2025, the new Syria's experiment in a new form of governance promises a number of potentials: some "really positive," predicted EGIC, and "some dangerous."

 EGIC leadership reported that "for the first time, real optimism is deepening across Lebanon." After decades of internal strife, the group anticipates a new degree of stability in Syria's southwestern neighbour state. A November standoff between Iranian diplomats and security officials at Beirut Airport indicates the erosion of Hezbollah control in the country, EGIC said. "Inshallah," it predicted, "the future of Lebanon is bright."

 And Iran enters the new year unusally weak, EGIC said. Recently-circulated claims that the country is six months away from a nuclear weapon are unfounded, EGIC said. "We've been hearing that," leadership said, "since 2008." The group did predict new rounds of "sticks and bribes" this year to try to lure Iran away from Russia and into the Western fold. 

 The fourth year of the Russia-Ukraine war will bring with it a new determination to diversify energy sources in Europe, EGIC expects. That presents great opportunity for euro-gulf relations which, the group said – pointing to the Gulf Cooperation Council's recent liberalization of visas, among other examples – have in the last year made "tremendous positive strides."

 After the round table, EGIC's crowd enjoyed a typically spirited aperitivo. 

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