ROME -- In the end, Italy only needed one moment. One moment of attacking quality: a committed, bulldozing Riccardo Calafiori run and lay-off to Mattia Zaccagni, whose curling shot into the top right corner finally unlocked the Croatia defence. One moment to change the Italian narrative. One moment to catapult Luciano Spalletti’s side into the last 16.

 
 Zaccagni’s goal was not even a winner, but a 98th-minute equaliser snatching a draw from the jaws of defeat. It was a spark of brilliance, reminiscent of Alessandro Del Piero’s semi-final goal versus Germany in the 2006 World Cup. It had all the aesthetic hallmarks and a similar impact: sending Italy through to play in Berlin. This time, rather than the heights of a World Cup final, the Azzurri only move into the Round of 16.

 
 For some, even that is undeserved. Italy had played, for the most part, without the impetus or finishing touch in the final third that would be needed to get a result. And after Luka Modric made amends for his penalty miss with a tap-in minutes later, Italy struggled to muster a response. But the equaliser from the Lazio midfielder changed everything.

 
 “The miracle of Zaccagni!” rejoiced Sky Italia’s Fabio Caressa, whose celebratory commentary interrupted by a coughing fit has since become famous across Italy. “This is a miracle my friend. Zaccagni with a miracle.”

 
 Spalletti, however, might not have agreed Italy’s win was purely a miraculous stroke of fate. The Italy head coach is not one to believe in the influence of external forces and during his time at Roma and Napoli, he cited William Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar in press conferences to inspire his teams. “It is not in the stars to hold our destiny,” he often quoted, “but in ourselves.”

 
 Spalletti has doubled down on the importance of his team, not luck, in getting Italy’s qualification from Group B over the line. A high-octane ending to the Croatia game was matched by his fiery press conference, furiously railing against critics of his Italy team.
 “You told me that [Group B] was the group of death. I didn’t say it. It was difficult to qualify because there were strong teams, because Spain was really strong, because Croatia was really strong.”

 
 “Don’t take the piss if we lose one game [against Spain]. That’s not ok. I’m sorry if we lose a game [but] I’m giving everything for the national team.”

 
 Italy’s destiny – whether engineered by luck or by the team – now leads to Berlin, where Spalletti’s side face Switzerland on Saturday. This was the first Round of 16 fixture to be confirmed, but a match-up between these two teams was anything but certain. For 15 minutes on Sunday evening, with Switzerland leading Germany 1-0, Italy could have been playing the tournament hosts in this round. Or still, if the Azzurri had finished third in Group B, they would have been out of the tournament altogether.

 
 For anyone suggesting a fixture against Switzerland is a more favourable draw, Italian fans will think again. In September 2021, these two sides played each other in Rome in a bid to seal qualification for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. But Jorginho blazed his penalty over the bar and a draw later had a decisive impact in sending Italy to the play-offs, where Roberto Mancini’s team would eventually miss out on qualification.

 
 Switzerland, one of the surprise teams of the tournament so far, have the potential to cause Italy problems again. Having finished second in Group A, Murat Yakin’s team swept aside Hungary 3-1 in their opener and were denied a historic win over Germany when Dan Ndoye’s sweetly struck volley was cancelled out by Niclas Fullkrug’s header in stoppage time. The Swiss have proven to be industrious out of possession and fluid on the break, and Spalletti’s side will have to match the intensity of their opponents.

 
 For Italy, the midfield battle could offer another headache. Granit Xhaka was imperious against Germany, operating in a more advanced position to effectively harass Toni Kroos on the ball. Jorginho has often looked vulnerable when pressured and will have to be more purposeful in possession to evade his former Arsenal teammate in Xhaka. Italy could opt to bring in Nicolò Fagioli, who brought a freshness and energy to Italy’s midfield against Croatia, but would have to sacrifice Jorginho’s experience at international level.

 
 Part of Switzerland’s success has come since switching to a 3-4-3, and Spalletti could opt to keep Italy’s 3-5-2 setup to nullify Switzerland’s midfield and match their forward line. Italy will also have to deal with the blow of losing Calafiori to suspension, one of the standout performers against Croatia. Either Roma’s Gianluca Mancini or Torino’s Alessandro Buongiorno should step in, with the challenge of matching Calafiori’s strength driving out of the back line and his near-flawless defensive display.

 
 Buongiorno, who spoke to Italian media before the game, reasserted Italy’s ‘never say die’ attitude. “[We showed people] an Italy team that doesn’t give up, that keeps going until the end, that managed to score in the last minute of a really difficult game.”

 
 But the ecstasy of last-gasp qualification has papered over some cracks – the biggest of all being Italy’s attack. Spalletti opted for Giacomo Raspadori and Mateo Retegui to lead the line in a front two against Croatia, but neither eased Italy’s concerns over goalscoring. Gianluca Scamacca, who came on as a second half substitute, could earn his spot back, while Federico Chiesa added some dynamism to Italy’s front line when he came on. The problem for the Juventus forward is that Spalletti’s 3-5-2 formation does not suit his game and the balance of the team could be lost shoehorning him into either the midfield or the front two.

 
 However Spalletti decides to roll the dice, this is yet another crucial game in his Italy tenure. The last time Switzerland reached the Round of 16 at the Euros, they claimed a major scalp by knocking France out on penalties in 2021. But Italy’s record against the Swiss is resoundingly positive: the Azzurri have not lost in 11 meetings and the last time Switzerland beat Italy at a major tournament was in the 1954 World Cup.

 
 This game is an opportunity for Spalletti and his Italy team to put the record straight and, with France, Germany, Spain, and Portugal all on the other side of the draw, a win could boost Italy’s prospects of going the distance. The Azzurri cannot rely on miracles again but a victory against Switzerland could lead to another twist of fate -- a potential rematch of the Euro 2020 final against England.

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