League widens lead over Five Star Movement

ROME - The latest Italian opinion polls on Tuesday suggest the League is widening its lead over Five Star.

 According to the polling agency Swg, the League, currently polling at 32.2 percent, has a 4 point advantage over the Five Star Movement, with only 28.3 percent. Trends highlight opposing behaviours as the League continues to grow and Five Star declines in popularity. If an election were to be called, the ruling coalition would gather 60% of votes compared to the 49 percent result at March 4 elections - an unequivocal approval sign of the Conte premiership.

 Further data from Swg compares voting intentions on September 3 with data collected on July 30. After just thirty days the League has seen its party consensus grow from 30.2 percent to 32.2 percent with a net positive growth of 1.9 percent. Five Star have registered a negative trend of 1.4% as the July 30 polls stand at 29.7 percent. The reasons for the League widening lead over the Five Star seem to be attributed to the events that occurred over the month of August. Italy’s Interior Minister Matteo Salvini’s strict policy on migration seems to have paid off. Specifically, the events regarding the Italian rescue vessel Diciotti seem to have consolidated the League poll lead, despite the backlash. The Five Star Movement, contrarily, failed to make an impact on their shrinking electorate in spite of a harsh reaction following the collapse of the Morandi bridge.

 On the opposition parties, the Democratic Party (PD) has seen a 0.3 percent growth over the past thirty days. Forza Italia (FI) has seen its consensus drop sharply from 8.6 percent to 6.9 percent. Less volatile is the Brothers of Italy (FdI), up 0.4 percent from July 30 3.7 percent.

 September 3 trends registered by Swg have been confirmed by the polling agency Lorien. The dates taken into consideration by Lorien are July 17 and August 27. The League is up by 3.5 percent whereas Five Star is down by 1.3 percent. Respectively polling at 31.7 percent and 26.8 percent with the League widening the lead by almost five points.