Could Italy referendum No vote cause new Eurozone crisis?
ROME -- Both the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal have published articles Monday about the possible political and economic consequences of the Italian constitutional referendum, both highlighting risks about Italy possibly leaving the euro.
On the front page of the Wall Street Journal, the newspaper highlights the risks for investors “who are preparing themselves for the turmoil,” while the Financial Times has dedicated a comment piece to the possible consequences of the referendum, by Wolfgang Munchau, who foresees the risk of a new “Eurozone crisis.”
In the case of the No victory, Munchau predicts “a series of events that would put Italy’s place in the Eurozone into uncertainty -- a worrying possibility that has nothing to do with the referendum itself,” but also due to other causes.
The first cause would be the country’s weak economic performance, as it has “lost five percent of its productivity” since its adoption of the euro in 1999, “while in Germany and France, it rose by 10 percent.”
The second cause is the “failure” of the EU, which did not know how to build a true economic and banking union after the 2010-2012 crisis and that instead created austerity.
“If it is rejected, the referendum will have the power to shake banking shares and further weaken the euro,” the Wall Street Journal also writes.
The latest surveys that show that the No seems to be prevalent have made investors nervous. But the stock market sales in the case of a No victory could be short lived, as happened with the USA presidential vote and Brexit.
Furthermore, the “political consequences could be less severe if there were a current credible government for business and if support for the Five Star Movement were to diminish,” this American financial newspaper writes.