BUCHAREST -- We are in a period of relative peace and a ceasefire armistice, fighting and destruction in the Middle East as agreed by Israel and the Palestinians in Gaza supported by Hamas ("Hope" - founded in 1987 by Sheikh Ahmed Yassin) and "Islamic Jihad" ("Holy War" - an organization founded in 1982 within the Lebanese Shiite "Amal" movement). This relative peace will certainly not last long, especially since the pro-Iranian Shiite militias ("Hezbollah" - "God's Army", is of Lebanese origin, was born in 1982 in Baalbek) announced their intention to subject Israel to strong aggression in the immediate future. Let us not forget that a little further north of the Gaza-Israel-Lebanon conflict there is the serious situation in Syria, which has been shattered for 10 years by a bloody civil war.

 Let us not overlook the dissolution of Libya after the removal of Muammar Gaddafi, as well as the instability of Iraq after the Gulf War and the removal of Saddam Hussein. We have a zonal picture with great insecurity problems, and the results of the last decades are known -- hundreds of thousands of deaths and a huge wave of refugees who risk destabilizing countries with a fragile ethnic balance, such as Lebanon and Jordan, and which has come to shake the foundation of the European Union. In addition, Europe, which has since become the scene of attacks by the Islamic State, seems to be slipping further and further into the clash of religions and civilizations it represents.

 If we do not have world wars on a global scale today, we have many internal wars. Even without major wars fought with weapons of mass destruction on a daily basis, people are killed on ethno-religious, tribal, sectarian grounds, and millions more go into exile, including to Europe, which is becoming a "besieged city" every day. devoid of saving ideas. The international community, materialized in the great powers and in their diplomatic game, which also in the great UN-type organizations, fails to help the societies tortured by these many internal conflicts and to obtain a peace.

 Does globalization have any concrete effect on the level of violence between human communities? Although globalization increases the closeness between ethnic groups and helps them to theoretically know and understand each other better, globalization does not reduce the level of mistrust and fear between them, so that the level of violence does not disappear, it remains at alarming levels.

 Based on these considerations, the US INFORMATION COMMUNITY prepared in April 2021, through the Office of the US Director of Information, an assessment of the threats in the immediate future and global trends with a medium and distant perspective. According to this assessment, the US and its allies are currently facing this global phenomenon called the COVID-19 Pandemic until the end of 2021 in the context of global power competition.

 The problems that are expected to arise will be those of demography, the environment, the economy and technology and regional interethnic religious conflicts. In this context, we are witnessing an increase in tensions worldwide between the major players on the world stage: the USA, China and Russia. The assessment of the US Intelligence Community shows us a possible global food insecurity in the next 10 years, in the context in which security policies are more focused on increasing the budgets for the procurement of equipment and military equipment.

 Climate change and environmental degradation appear to be a serious cause that will dramatically affect the world's populations. Degradation or depletion of resources, such as water, oil or other biodiversity resources, will endanger infrastructure, health, food, and therefore life as a whole.

 Another aspect worth considering and which is the subject of this evaluation is the emergence of new technologies, which are becoming more widespread globally. A serious problem may be the ownership of these cutting-edge technologies by groups or individuals hostile to world peace and balance. Of course, technology is beneficial, but it can cause destabilization in the military, economic and social fields. That is why it is necessary to constantly monitor the progress made in areas such as biotechnology, computer science, cybernetics and artificial intelligence, as well as overdeveloped space programs.

 Another plan of the analysis of the evaluation of the US Intelligence Community is the perseverance of cyber attacks. Authoritarian regimes will increasingly exploit digital tools to supervise their citizens, restrict their individual rights and freedoms, and manipulate public information in order to maintain state control.

 Another aspect is drug trafficking and serious organized crime. Most traffickers in the world are known to come from Mexico and Colombia, trading in cocaine, heroin, fentanyl, cannabis and methamphetamine. At the same time, transnational criminal organizations will continue to use cyber tools and complex financial schemes to launder illicit money, thus undermining trust in state institutions and authorities.

 Another vulnerability is migration and terrorism, as the increase in migration and refugee flows will produce cross-border movements and conflicts. Migration will increase humanitarian needs, increase the risk of internal conflicts, multiply the risks of crisis for the health system and lead to the radicalization of certain categories of people. Migratory flows from the Middle East and North Africa to Europe will continue to diminish the reactionary power of the states to which these migratory hordes are heading.

 As far as terrorism is concerned, the terrorist groups ISIS and Al-Queda will remain the biggest terrorist threats to democracy and the West in general; to these are added the most radical extremists, fundamentalists and Islamist followers, who can act individually, but also in well-organized groups and gangs with well-defined goals.

 In a more distant plan, the US Intelligence Community draws attention to the factor of state instability and diminishing democracy and sets out some observations and recommendations towards a coexistence based on competition, financial autonomy and global state mobilization.

 With the hope that political, economic, military, medical, etc. decision makers. Representatives worldwide will understand the importance and seriousness of decisions made at critical times and not only then, the world can take a breath of fresh air for recovery, revitalization, progress and prosperity.

 jp